{"id":50979,"date":"2026-03-26T07:48:29","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T07:48:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/?p=50979"},"modified":"2026-03-26T09:07:41","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T09:07:41","slug":"microsoft-msft-sob-pressao-sustentada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.onequity.com\/pt\/microsoft-msft-sob-pressao-sustentada\/","title":{"rendered":"Microsoft (MSFT) Sob Press\u00e3o Sustentada"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
As a\u00e7\u00f5es da Microsoft ca\u00edram cerca de 30% em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s m\u00e1ximas hist\u00f3ricas, atingidas intraday em 28 de outubro do ano passado em US$ 551,43, tornando o papel o pior desempenho entre as \u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d nos \u00faltimos seis meses \u2014 com o ativo registrando o pior in\u00edcio de ano desde 2008.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A corre\u00e7\u00e3o n\u00e3o reflete deteriora\u00e7\u00e3o dos fundamentos \u2014 a receita do 2\u00ba trimestre fiscal atingiu US$ 81,3 bilh\u00f5es, com alta de 17% em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao ano anterior, enquanto o lucro por a\u00e7\u00e3o dilu\u00eddo subiu 60% para US$ 5,16 \u2014, mas sim uma reprecifica\u00e7\u00e3o do mercado impulsionada pela crescente diferen\u00e7a entre os investimentos em IA e sua monetiza\u00e7\u00e3o. Os gastos de capital chegaram a US$ 37,5 bilh\u00f5es apenas no trimestre, sendo dois ter\u00e7os destinados a ativos de curta dura\u00e7\u00e3o como GPUs e CPUs, frente a US$ 64,6 bilh\u00f5es em todo o ano fiscal de 2025. Investidores passam a questionar o retorno desse n\u00edvel de investimento.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 ampliada pelo fato de que a OpenAI \u2014 respons\u00e1vel por 45% do backlog do Azure \u2014 era vista como um motor para acelerar a competitividade da Microsoft em IA frente ao Google, mas essa parceria ainda n\u00e3o se traduziu em melhorias vis\u00edveis no desempenho do Copilot. Isso levou a empresa a aumentar seus investimentos em P&D, ao mesmo tempo em que consome capacidade interna do Azure que poderia gerar receita com clientes. Paralelamente, crescem os receios de que a IA generativa possa, no longo prazo, pressionar o modelo altamente lucrativo de software corporativo da empresa, levando analistas a revisar m\u00faltiplos de valuation e intensificando a press\u00e3o sobre o papel em 2026. Em resumo, o mercado precificava crescimento acelerado; o que encontrou foi expans\u00e3o mais est\u00e1vel do Azure e um capex sem sinais de desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o \u2014 combina\u00e7\u00e3o que continua pesando sobre o sentimento.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A melhor forma de avaliar a magnitude do movimento da MSFT (US$ 370,42) \u00e9 come\u00e7ar por um gr\u00e1fico de longo prazo, especificamente uma vis\u00e3o de cinco anos, onde duas linhas de tend\u00eancia sustentam o rali desde 2020. A mais recente e inclinada, iniciada em agosto de 2022 na regi\u00e3o de US$ 213, parece ter sido rompida de forma decisiva. A quebra ocorreu em torno de US$ 395 no dia 19 de mar\u00e7o (ap\u00f3s uma tentativa falha em 23 de fevereiro), representando um sinal negativo relevante. Isso \u00e9 particularmente preocupante porque a linha de tend\u00eancia de longo prazo, iniciada em 2020, est\u00e1 muito mais abaixo, pr\u00f3xima da regi\u00e3o de US$ 310.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Entre esses n\u00edveis, destaca-se um suporte intermedi\u00e1rio em US$ 365,75 (marcado com linhas tracejadas azuis), al\u00e9m de um suporte mais relevante em US$ 345. No lado superior, US$ 384 foi recentemente perdido e agora tende a atuar como resist\u00eancia significativa. A a\u00e7\u00e3o permanece dentro de uma tend\u00eancia de baixa bem definida, e os indicadores \u2014 embora tenham corrigido parcialmente \u2014 ainda n\u00e3o est\u00e3o em zona de sobrevenda nem mostram sinais claros de diverg\u00eancia ou revers\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n MSFT, Out 2025 \u2013 Presente<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Ao reduzir o timeframe para o gr\u00e1fico de 1 hora e focar na queda iniciada no final de outubro, observa-se potencial adicional de baixa em dire\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 faixa entre US$ 365 e US$ 345 (com maior probabilidade de atingir o limite inferior). Isso implicaria uma queda adicional de aproximadamente 5% a 7,5%. Quando houver rea\u00e7\u00e3o compradora, o pre\u00e7o ainda dever\u00e1 enfrentar resist\u00eancia na linha de tend\u00eancia descendente interna do canal \u2014 a mesma que rejeitou o movimento em alta no in\u00edcio de mar\u00e7o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
O \u00fanico sinal construtivo no momento \u00e9 que, no gr\u00e1fico de 1 hora, come\u00e7am a surgir ind\u00edcios iniciais \u2014 ainda prematuros \u2014 de poss\u00edvel revers\u00e3o nos indicadores.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ainda assim, para um ativo desse perfil, permanece v\u00e1lido o princ\u00edpio cl\u00e1ssico: evitar tentar antecipar o fundo em um movimento de queda acentuada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
As a\u00e7\u00f5es da Microsoft ca\u00edram cerca de 30% em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s m\u00e1ximas hist\u00f3ricas, atingidas intraday em 28 de outubro do ano passado em US$ 551,43, tornando o papel o pior desempenho entre as \u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d nos \u00faltimos seis meses \u2014 com o ativo registrando o pior in\u00edcio de ano desde 2008. A corre\u00e7\u00e3o n\u00e3o reflete […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":42724,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[209],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50979","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
Microsoft (MSFT) Sob Press\u00e3o Sustentada - OnEquity<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Microsoft (MSFT) Sob Press\u00e3o Sustentada - OnEquity\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As a\u00e7\u00f5es da Microsoft ca\u00edram cerca de 30% em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s m\u00e1ximas hist\u00f3ricas, atingidas intraday em 28 de outubro do ano passado em US$ 551,43, tornando o papel o pior desempenho entre as \u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d nos \u00faltimos seis meses \u2014 com o ativo registrando o pior in\u00edcio de ano desde 2008. 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